Hello Sir,
Hope you are doing well.
Markets are at an all-time high and all the indices, be it small cap, mid cap, etc. all are doing well.
Jun’24 has proven to be an extremely good month for equity investors in general. Except for the major correction on 4th Jun’24, it’s been a smooth sailing.
As is often the case, whenever the markets have corrected sharply or have done well, the general question that comes to mind is…what next?
Instead of trying to predict what the markets will do next, we prefer looking at market sentiment.
And the tool we use is basic google trends chart for the search term “Multibagger Stock”.
Surprisingly, such a basic tool has proved to be quite accurate in marking market tops and bottoms in the past.
As can be observed from the chart, the “Multibagger Stock” trends chart peaked around the same time markets peaked in the past: Dec’07, Sep’10, Jan’18, Jan’22.
Similarly, the “Multibagger stock” trends chart bottomed around the same time markets hit bottom in the past: Dec’08, Jul’13, Mar’20, Mar’23.
Value of Google trends at the end of Jun’24 was 38 which is closer to lows than highs.
However, for Jul’24, it has risen to around 53. As per Google, Jul’24 number is based on partial (incomplete) data. Thus, it will be important to check the number at the end of the month.
Normally, the danger zone has been around 65 or higher.
The value did reach around 68 in Jan’24 and post that we saw 10-12% correction in small-mid caps in Mar’24.
At least, as per the chart, a major correction looks some time away (probably a few months); however, one should surely be cautious in terms of stock selection at this point of time. There are certain pockets/sectors which are quite overheated and may prove to be risky.
Note: Any indicator is prone to errors and can’t be relied on completely. Also, in general, one should invest only that money in stocks which you think you won’t need at least for 3-4 years.
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Best Regards,
Ekansh Mittal
Research Analyst
Web: https://www.katalystwealth.
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