We are glad to inform you that we have completed 6.5 + years of running Alpha and Alpha + Tracker Sheets.
As you might be aware, we started maintaining tracker sheets with a hypothetical sum of Rs 50 lakhs on 15th Aug’18. The main purpose of the same was to create something for the members to show them how we would act based on our research.
Since 15th Aug’18, we haven’t added any capital to the same, except for dividends.
The value as on today, 30th Mar’25, is Rs 2.01 crore.
The purpose of writing today is to share our experience in the light of recent market correction.
If you have been investing since 2017 or before, the recent correction may not be something new for you; however, if you started investing post March 2020, the correction since Jan’25 might have been a bit scary.
Around the beginning of Mar’25, the small and mid-cap indices were down around 25-27% from the highs. There’s been some recovery since then.
Corrections are part and parcel of investing in stock market. While there are smaller corrections (<10%) every few months, there are bigger corrections (20% +) every few years.
Looking back, Jan’18-Mar’20 was a tough period for us and for equity investors in general as the small and mid-caps went through a phase of correction.
In fact, at one point of time, the 50 lakhs sum in the tracker sheet was down to around Rs 31 lakhs in Mar’20. We were barely matching Nifty Midcap 100 in terms of performance and underperforming NIFTY 50.
50 lakhs being down to 31 lakhs is 38% correction and that’s over a period of more than 1.5 years. That’s brutal and anyone who started investing in 2017-18 would have started doubting if wealth can actually be created by investing in stocks.
However, as the markets did well over the next 4 years, the tracker sheet value went up to 2.35 crore in Dec’24 and currently around 2.01 crore.
Thus, wealth does get created over longer periods; however, losses are equally probable over shorter durations. That’s why we keep saying, invest only that money in stock market which you think you won’t need for the next 4 years or more.
Another point we would like to highlight is that along the way we made several mistakes including wrong selection of stock or wrong timing of entry or exit. These mistakes resulted in permanent capital loss in such stocks.
Some of the prominent ones are: Shemaroo, Everest Kanto, Valiant Organics, Care Rating, Tiger Logistics, Mirza International, Bajaj Consumer, etc.
Despite several such mistakes, the tracker sheet value is up from 50 lakhs to 2.01 crore.
In our experience, you can’t have all the winning stocks in your portfolio; however, with adequate diversification, over longer-term market rewards you through – Asymmetric Payoffs.
Adequate diversification and longer-term are key words here.
While it is difficult to scientifically define adequate diversification, I personally believe one can achieve reasonable diversification with 20-25 stocks across varied sectors.
The idea behind diversification is to ensure that mistakes don’t hurt your portfolio so bad that you aren’t able to recover.
Further, diversification also helps in opening optionality. In the long term, stocks can go up 2x, 5x, 10x or much higher while the max you can lose on a stock is 100%.
Thus, with decent research and diversification, your winners can more than take care of the losses from the bad ones.
Going forward, while we don’t know as to how long the ongoing correction will last, we don’t expect a swift recovery. There might be time correction, price correction or a combination of both.
While there are a lot of stocks and sectors which are offering good value, there are also many which are still significantly overvalued despite the recent correction.
Further, you may do well by avoiding the leaders of the last bull market. As has been observed in the past, leaders of the last bull market end up underperforming significantly over the next many years.
While one cannot always remain unimpacted by corrections, we hope to limit the downside by focusing on growth stocks available at reasonable valuations, cyclical opportunities, insider bets, etc.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy/sell any of the stocks mentioned above. The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Tracker Sheet is not a model portfolio and is in no way a portfolio advisory or buy/sell recommendation for you.
Ekansh Mittal
Research Analyst
SEBI Research Analyst Registration No. INH100001690
Research Analyst Details
Name: Ekansh Mittal Email Id: [email protected] Ph: +91 727 5050062
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This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. Ekansh Mittal/Mittal Consulting/Katalyst Wealth is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Ekansh Mittal or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Neither Ekansh Mittal, nor its employees, agents nor representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Ekansh Mittal/Mittal Consulting or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.
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Whether the research analyst or research entity or his associate or his relative has any financial interest in the subject company/companies and the nature of such financial interest – Yes, in Valiant Organics
Whether the research analyst or research entity or his associates or his relatives have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company (at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance) – No
Whether the research analyst or research entity or his associate or his relative has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance – No
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months – No
Whether it or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months – No
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months – No
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months – No
Whether the subject company is or was a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report and the types of services provided – No
Whether the research analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company – No
Whether the research analyst or research entity has been engaged in market making activity for the subject company – No