In the last 1 year, the broader markets are down around 15-20%.
One question on everyone’s mind is when the markets will recover?
While there are no perfect tools to predict market tops and bottoms, there’s one indicator “Google Trends” which has been quite accurate in determining investor’s sentiments and to some extent market tops and bottoms.
Let’s look at that indicator and what it is suggesting right now.
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Google Trends – Multibagger chart
- This chart basically shares the trend of “Multibagger stock” search on Google
- When the value is high, say 50 or above, that means more investors are searching for multibagger stocks on google
- Similarly, when the value is low, say less than 25, then investor sentiment is down and only few investors are searching for multibagger stocks on google
- In general, whenever the value has gone beyond 65, the markets have corrected sooner than later. Look at Dec 2007, Sep 2010, Jan 2018, Jan 2022 and Dec 2024
- Thus, 65 + value has coincided with frothy markets followed by correction
- On the other hand, whenever the value has dropped below 25, the markets have done well over the next 3-4 years. Look at Oct 2011, May 2013, Nov 2016, Aug 2019, Mar 2020, Mar 2023
- Thus, 25 or below has coincided with value emerging in the market
- The idea behind this indicator is to get a sense of basic investor sentiment and take an effective contrarian call
- As far as current situation is concerned, the value for Dec’25 is 23 and goes to show how the correction in broader market over the last 12-15 months has dampened investor sentiments
- There are definitely better investment opportunities emerging in the market and the focus should be on growth stocks trading at reasonable valuations. This is the space where most money will be made in next 3-4 years
Note: No indicator is pefect and the value could remain below 25 for an extended period of 12-18 months before market starts moving upwards.
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Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy/sell any of the stocks mentioned above. The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory.
Ekansh Mittal
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