I want to share something unusual with you today — a contrarian indicator I’ve been tracking for years that has an almost perfect track record of calling market tops and bottoms.
It’s not a technical indicator. It’s not fund flow data. It’s not insider buying.
It’s Google search trends.
Specifically: How often retail investors in India search for the term “Multibagger stock.”
Let me show you what 19 years of data reveals — and what it’s telling us right now in February 2026.
The Pattern That Repeats Every Cycle
I’ve overlaid Google Trends data for “Multibagger stock” searches (India) from June 2007 to February 2026.
The pattern is striking — and disturbingly consistent:
When search interest PEAKS → Markets are near a top
When search interest BOTTOMS → That’s when real opportunities appear
Let me walk you through the history:
Peak #1: December 2007
Search Interest: Near all-time high
Market Context: Sensex at ~20,000, euphoria everywhere
What Happened Next: 2008 financial crisis. Market crashed 60% over the next 10 months.
Lesson: When everyone is searching for multibaggers, you’re already late. The multibaggers have already run.
Trough #1: May 2013
Search Interest: Rock bottom (near zero)
Market Context: Post-2011 crash malaise, FII outflows, policy paralysis
What Happened Next: The next 4 years (2014-2017) were a golden period for small and mid-cap stocks. Stocks that nobody wanted in 2013 became 5x-10x baggers by 2017.
Lesson: When nobody is interested in searching for multibaggers, that’s precisely when they’re being created — in silence.
Peak #2: January 2018
Search Interest: Second-highest peak after 2007
Market Context: Small and mid-cap bubble. Everything was going up. “Markets only go up” sentiment.
What Happened Next: Mid-caps corrected 30-40% over the next 18 months. Small-caps fell even harder.
Trough #2: March 2020
Search Interest: Absolute zero
Market Context: COVID crash. Panic. Nifty at 7,600. “Markets will never recover” narrative.
What Happened Next: The single biggest multibagger opportunity in a decade. Stocks that were available at ₹50 in March 2020 went to ₹500+ by 2021.
Lesson: When fear is at its peak and search interest is at zero, that’s when generational wealth is created.
Peak #3: January 2022
Search Interest: Third major peak
Market Context: Post-COVID rally euphoria. Retail participation at all-time high. Everyone was an “investor.”
What Happened Next: By 2023, small caps had corrected 40-50%. Many IPO-era darlings fell 70%+.
Where Are We Now? (February 2026)
Here’s the most important part:
Search interest for “Multibagger stock” has been DECLINING steadily since the December 2024 peak.
As of February 2026, we’re at levels last seen in April 2025 — and continuing to fall.
What Does This Mean?
Translation: Retail investors are getting exhausted. They’re losing interest. The excitement is fading.
And historically, that’s when patient money gets rewarded.
Think about it:
- When everyone was searching in 2007 → 2008 crash followed
- When nobody was searching in 2013 → 2014-17 boom followed
- When everyone was searching in 2018 → 2018-19 correction followed
- When nobody was searching in March 2020 → 2020-21 rally followed
- When everyone was searching in 2022 → 2022-23 correction followed
The pattern is consistent:
High search volume = Greed = Market top
Low search volume = Fear = Market bottom
Why Does This Work?
This isn’t some mystical indicator. It’s pure behavioral finance.
Retail investors search for “multibagger stocks” AFTER they’ve already seen their neighbor/colleague/uncle make money in the market.
By the time retail is actively searching for multibaggers:
- The easy gains have been made
- Valuations are stretched
- Smart money is quietly exiting
- The risk-reward is terrible
Conversely, when retail has STOPPED searching:
- They’ve been burned by losses
- Sentiment is negative
- Nobody wants to talk about stocks
- Valuations have normalized
- That’s when the next cycle’s multibaggers are quietly accumulating
As Warren Buffett said: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
Google Trends just quantifies the “greed” and “fear” for us.
What Should You Do With This Information?
I’m not saying “buy everything” or “sell everything” based on this indicator alone.
But here’s how I use it:
When Search Interest is HIGH (like 2007, 2018, 2022):
✅ Be more cautious with new deployments
✅ Book some profits in extended positions
✅ Increase quality bar for new investments
✅ Build a watchlist, don’t chase prices
✅ Increase cash allocation gradually
When Search Interest is LOW (like 2013, March 2020, now trending down):
✅ Deploy capital more aggressively
✅ Focus on quality businesses that got beaten down with the market
✅ Don’t wait for “perfect entry” — good businesses at reasonable prices are rare in bull markets
✅ Build positions in companies you’ve been researching
✅ This is when 3-5 year wealth is created
Current Actionable Insight (February 2026)
Right now, search interest is declining from the December 2024 peak.
We’re not at “March 2020 levels” yet (absolute despair), but we’re moving in that direction.
What this tells me:
The froth is coming out. Retail is losing interest. The weak hands are exiting.
This is early-stage opportunity formation — not peak opportunity yet, but getting there.
My approach right now:
- Building watchlists of quality businesses that have corrected 20-30%+ from highs
- Deploying capital selectively in names where fundamentals are intact
- Not waiting for “the perfect bottom” — that only becomes clear in hindsight
The Bottom Line
You don’t need fancy tools to be a contrarian investor.
Sometimes, the best indicator is simply: What is the crowd doing?
When the crowd is frantically searching for multibaggers → Stay cautious.
When the crowd has given up and stopped searching → Start hunting.
The best time to search for multibaggers is when nobody else is searching.
The data from 19 years is clear. The pattern repeats. Human behavior doesn’t change.
Right now, in February 2026, the crowd is slowly walking away.
For patient investors, that’s not a warning sign.
That’s an invitation.
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Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy/sell any of the stocks mentioned above. The securities quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory.
Ekansh Mittal
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